PRMIA 8008 - Questions & Answers

Using the beta for VaR calculations is a significant simplification based on the CAPM and the assumption that any specific risks are diversified away. The one thing a risk model based on the CAPM does not consider is the specific risk of individual stocks, because, as mentioned, these are considered to be offsetting each other so that the portfolio only carries market risk reflected in the beta. Therefore Choice 'c' is not true and therefore the correct answer.

According to the option pricing approach developed by Merton, the shareholders of a firm have a put on the assets of the firm where the strike price is equal to the face value of the firm's debt. This is just a more complicated way of saying that the debt holders are entitled to all the assets of the firm if these assets are insufficient to pay off the debts, and because of limited liability of the shareholders of a corporation this part payment will fully extinguish the debt. A firm will default on its debt if the value of the assets falls below the face value of the debt. Therefore Choice 'a' is the correct answer. All other choices are incorrect. (There are two ways to consider this sort of optionality, and I have mentioned only one for this question: 1. The equity holders can sell the assets of the firm to the debt holders at a price equal to the face value of the debt, ie a put. (ie they can extinguish their liability to the debt holders in full by handing them the assets of the firm, effectively selling them the assets at the value of the debt)
2. The equity holders have a long position in a call option where they can keep the assets of the firm by paying a price equal to the face value of the debt (ie, they can pay off the debt holders and keep the assets) For this question, perspective 1 applies but you should be aware of the second one too as a question may reference that view point.)

The correct answer is choice 'd'
Marginal VaR is just the change in total VaR from a $1 change in the value of the asset in the portfolio. All other answers are incorrect. Mathematically, it is expressed as follows, where VaRp is the VaR for the portfolio, and Vi is the value of the asset in question.

Other answers describe other VaR related concepts such as incremental VaR, Component VaR and Conditional VaR.

One may use separate UoMs for frequency and severity modeling, for example, a combined UoM may be used for estimating the frequency of cyber attacks in a scenario, while the severity may be modeled using a more granular line-of-business UoM. Therefore statement I is false, while statement IV is true.Statement II is correct, UoMs can be grouped together into larger units based on the facts relating to the business, controls and the business environment. Similarly, UoMs can be grouped together based on statistical clustering techniques using the 'distance' between the units of measure and combining UoMs that are closer to each other. In addition, it is also possible to combine both business knowledge and statistical algorithms to combine UoMs.

All the factors listed above contributed to systemic failure. Liquidity risk was not on the radar of regulators, and was a second priority for risk managers, and most of the focus was on capital adequacy as liquidity was thought to be an unlikely problem. Liquidity, regardless of capital adequacy, was the primary cause of failure of a number of institutions during the crisis.

Similarly, stress tests proved to be much milder than the shocks that were actually experienced, and the strategy of 'originate and distribute' implied that the mortgage and other debt originators had no interest in any due diligence as they intended to package and sell the debt to other investors.

Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

Statement I is correct. The financial system proved to be stable against small shocks and disturbances, or shocks of a particular type (eg, the dotcom crash, the wars in the Persian Gulf); but rather fragile against
other types of shocks, including disturbances to key market participants caused by a worsening of mortgage defaults.Statement II is incorrect. Financial innovation, in particular the slicing and dicing of 'risk' through securitization, significantly increased interrelationships, dependence on the same risk factors, and the complexity of the system as a whole.Statement III is incorrect. A distinction is sometimes made between risk that is knowable, measureable, and quantifiable through parameters; and uncertainty, where
the parameters are not known at all. The latter is called 'Knightian uncertainty' after the name of the scholar who came up with the distinction between the two.Statement IV is correct. Feedback effects had the greatest impact on liquidity which was tended to be hoarded, and on asset prices that tumbled as market participants tried to sell assets to become more liquid.Thus, choice is a the correct answer.

Choice 'd' represents a risk that does not arise from its holdings of mortgages. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
All the other risks identified are correct - the bank faces interest rate, default and prepayment risks on its mortgages.

This is easy to calculate as follows: At the 99% confidence level, the VaR=2.326 * Std Deviation (remember the z values at the 95% and 99% levels, the PRMIA exam may not give you these values).
Thus the 1-day standard deviation is $250m/2.326, and the 250-day standard deviation is 250 * ($250m/2.326) = $1,699.4m. Remember: if you know the VaR, you know the standard deviation. Once you know the standard deviation for any period of time, you can convert it into standard deviation for another period using the square root of time rule. You can also calculate the VaR at a different confidence level too.

The total value of the portfolio is $370 (=$100 + $120 + $150). The modified duration of the portfolio is the weighted average of the MDs of the different bonds, ie =(5 * 100/370) + (10 * 120/370) + (12 * 150/370) =
9.46.

This means that for every 1% change in interest rates, the value of the portfolio changes by 9.46%. Since the daily volatility of interest rates is 2%, the 95% confidence level move will be 1.65 * 2% = 3.30%. Thus, the VaR of the portfolio at the 95% confidence level will be 3.3 * 9.46% * $370 = $115.51.

All other answers are incorrect.

In December 2009 the BIS came out with a new consultative document on liquidity risk. Given the events of 2007 - 2009, it has been clear that a key characteristic of the financial crisis was the inaccurate and ineffective management of liquidity risk
The paper two separate but complementary objectives in respect of liquidity risk management: The first objective relates to the short-term liquidity risk profile of institution, and the second objective is to promote resiliency over longer-term time horizons. The paper identifies the following two ratios - you should be aware of these - though I am not sure if these will show up in the PRMIA exam:
1. Liquidity Coverage Ratio addresses the ability of an institution to survive an acute liquidity risk stress scenario lasting one month. It is calculated as follows:
Liquidity Coverage Ratio = Stock of high quality liquid assets/Net cash outflows over a 30- day time period 2. Net Stable Funding Ratio has been developed to capture structural issues related to funding choices.
Net Stable Funding Ratio = Available amount of stable funding/Required amount of stable funding Both ratios should be equal to or greater than 1. The statement contains detailed definitions of what is included or excluded from each of the terms used in the calculations for each of the ratios. In addition, the standard also describes the what the 'acute' scenario should include (things such as a 3 notch credit downgrade, reduction in retail deposits etc) Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer. Book Value to Share Price and Earnings Per Share are accounting measures unrelated to liquidity.